Mid-Week Update

Lot going on these days in the world of National Security news. First the Somali pirates are stepping up their game after the "3 shots, 3 kills" incident over the weekend.

Benyamin Netanyahu is taking a hardline approach with Iran in the wake of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's claim that Iran now has 5000-7000 centrifuges at its Natanz facility capable of enriching uranium (this nearly 2 months after the fact that is was discovered that Iran is already in possession of enough enriched uranium to produce at least one bomb).

Earlier this month North Korea successfully launched a Tae PoDong II missile. Bear in mind that the rest of the world is calling the launch a failure in that the missile wasn't actually able to put a satellite in orbit. In reality, the DPRK already has that capability with the Tae PoDong I. The test was an attempt to prove that the Tae PoDong II missile was able to achieve a longer range than its predecessor...which it did, traveling approximately 2000 miles before splashing down in the Sea of Japan. DO NOT believe the Western press reports that the launch was a failure!!! If you think that the DPRK wont have long range capabilities within the next five years, you're crazy!

Finally, (well there's tons more, but no one likes my "boring" blog posts, so I'll keep it short) China is working on its next big export: A carrier rocket capable of launching multiple satellites on a single trip. It's not a huge step to outfit this thing with MIRV capability, ya know.

Musical flavor this week is one of my longtime favorites: The New Pornographers. I saw them open up for Spoon last year...amazing. And Neko Case is so much hotter in person!

The Week Ahead...

So here I am, a little after 1am Monday morning sipping a St. Arnold's, posting to my other blog and thinking about the week ahead. This is my crazy time of year; T.S. Elliot was right. Let's see what I have lined up...need to complete my FAFSA, file for an extension for income taxes (now is just not the time to dig through all of those receipts...I'll do it after finals), I have a paper due in 1 week, a customer deployment in California, a customer here in Texas that needs attention, not to mention my regular work duties...oh well, at least I'll be busy and the week should go by rather quickly.

My paper topic is pretty kick-awesome: Pentateuchal Sources of the Just War Doctrine (Jus ad Bellum). Which is just another way of saying "how the Old Testament justifies war". I've already collected most of my research, now I just need to synthesize content...wish me luck!

Great picnic with the peeps yesterday and great bike riding today. My only regret is that Huntsville left me so tired that I didn't have any energy left to go hang out with my family for Easter...I guess that's the price you pay for glory...

Oh, they're good...

Ok, this is a sort of an anonymous blog in that I don't publish my name ANYWHERE on the site and, as far as I know, I've never received a comment that mentions my name. However, the Franklin Pierce Law Center, in Concord, NH (see previous post) found it! They visited yesterday and looked at 3 pages. So to the Franklin Pierce Law Center I say kudos!...I'm pretty sure I figured out how they found the Hobo (I have theory, which I will post later, that is so elegant in its simplicity), but I gotta ask them directly...how'd you do it?

Final Round

Well, the final round of law school apps has been sent out; the lucky recipients this round were George Washington University (D.C.) and Franklin Pierce Law (Concord, NH). All that remains is to wait around and see what happens...it is truly out of my control at his point.

It feels weird not having to go to Mock Trial practice everyday...I'm not sure what to do with my free time...guess I better be productive and do homework! So now that it's all over we're asking ourselves if it was worth it and I gotta say this: Mock Trial was the most demanding and excruciating program in my college career...but I'd do it again in a heartbeat.

New Musical Flavor of the Week: The Sainte Catherines, they're kinda awesome.

Walking in Memphis

Well, The ol' mock trial team didn't exactly win this past weekend, but we did crack a few heads in the process. Fucking Rhodes College was comprised primarily of doucebags so we gave them hell. When I was taken on cross examination one of the questions I got was "Was it reported in the media that your brother-in-law cheated on his income taxes?". My response, "My brother-in-law is an idiot", had the entire courtroom in stitches. After the crossing attorney made a "Witness is Non Responsive" objection, I was forced to answer the question. Of course, I didn't. My next response was "I'm not H&R Block" hahaha. Fuck 'em...does anyone else find it odd that 3 of the judges in that round were Rhodes College Alumns?...shenanigans much?

Memphis was a really kick ass down. Beale street was particularly awesome considering the NCAA Sweet 16 was in town; the street was full of revelers. In addition, the food was freakin' awesome!

On Sunday we were hanging out in the bar after the final round of competition with none other than actor/comedian Eddie Griffin and his homey J.C. Eddie and J.C. were cooler than the other side of a pillow. We watched the UNC/OU game and drank some brews. They hooked us up with tickets to Eddie's comedy show and after the show we all hung out back at the bar. Eddie now has a fan for life, in spite of the fact that I disagree with his politics.

Speaking of NCAA did anyone catch the Pitt/Villanova game on Saturday? How sick was the last 5.5 seconds?!?!!??

That was a weekend that will not be topped soon...

Silver Bullets and Elvis...

No this post is not about Werewolf Elvis...although that would make for an AWESOME novel or an opera (read: classy)...To clarify my last post, I just want to say that I believe that no economic theory can be a "silver bullet". Rather, I believe that rational theories should be examined in relation to one another. My reason for this is my reflection on Keynesian and Supply Side theory and the complimentary relationship they have rather than any sort mutually exclusive relationship. To put it another way I believe that one theory may be best during a peak in the business cycle and the other during a trough of the business cycle.

And Elvis? Well I'm going to Memphis on Thursday and Graceland, baby! I plan on buying a sequined cape, you know, for the ladies...actually the purpose of the trip is not all sideburn related; me and the Mock Trial team are going...to get our asses handed to us. All I have to do is make it through the weekend and I'm done with Mock Trial forever!!! Even though I hated nearly every minute, it sure was fun...

Keynes v. Friedman

A question was recently posed to me "what do you think about Keynesian Economics?". My response: "it's definitely a viable theory, especially given today's economic climate". The questioner, let's call him Jan Patel, was surprised and argued that Supply Side economics was the superior theory. Now being the type of economics student that studied more David Ricardo (read:comparative advantage theory)than either John Maynard Keynes or Milton Friedman (Supply Side Economist), and even so not even much of him, I had to think about the long run effects of both policies for a little bit.

Here's what I came up with: In Keynesian theory, stimulation of the economy is achieved by a combination of two methods: 1. lower interest rates (to increase spending by decreasing savings/increase borrowing, because, hey, what the hell. Money's cheap); and 2. Increase Government spending.

Conversely, Supply Side Economics stimulates the economy by lowering tax rates, primarily for business and investors, which in turn leads to an increase of available capital.

So you can see the conflict. On the surface both theories seem to make sense. Now here's where it gets tricky - every economic theory is based on, wait for it, assumptions. The first year economics student, if he or she learns nothing else, learns a little bit of latin: ceteris paribus - "all other things being equal", which is the mother of all assumptions in economics.

So short and sweet here's my take: Keynes assumes that, all other things being equal, lower interest rates mean a.)that banks are less willing to lend money. When interest rates are too low banks and investors look for safe investments which have traditionally been government bonds. The Government can then use the proceeds from the bonds to invest in infrastructure which will pump inject capital into the market. Or b.) With lower interest rates more people are willing to borrow and invest in the private sector - which will also pump money into the market.

Supply Side Economics assumes that, all other things being equal, lowering taxes will lead to increased capital, which leads to increased market supply, which leads to higher demand (it's one of the few laws of economics - higher supply = lower prices which drives up demand until equilibrium is reached). The lower taxes lead to increased investment, which leads to cheaper goods and thus higher incomes.

Now here's the kicker: all other things are not equal! Both models when examined separately assume that the consumer is rational - that given the opportunity the consumer acts in his or her best interest. In recent months we have seen the folly of taking this assumption for granted. The consumer is anything but rational! Interest rates are at an all time low and money is indeed available for qualified borrowers. However, the paranoia propagated by the 24 hour media, by the pundits that are ill equipped to comment authoritatively on complex economic issues, but are ever so entertaining, has turned the average consumer/investor into quivering masses of hoarders. With low confidence, people are unwilling to borrow money and they are unwilling to spend the money that is pumped into the economy by the government. In addition, consumers are more likely to save, and thus, not purchase the supply of goods and capital that is produced via Supply Side policy - resulting in an inefficient allocation of resources; a cardinal sin for the economist.

So is it all doom and gloom? The short answer is "no". What is needed is a combination of both policies combined with an effective means of positively influencing the discourse of the media.

So Jeff, I mean, Jan Patel - there's my take on it.